Donald Trump was elected into the highest US office four years ago following two terms of former US president Barack Obama. Now he is battling against Mr Obama’s former vice president Joe Biden. Americans will cast their ballots on Tuesday, November 3 to elect their next leader. Mr Trump won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote due to the voting system in the US. Many experts have made claims about the winner of the US 2020 election, but Express.co.uk has gathered exclusive data about what the books think will happen on election day.
The latest poll published on October 26 by Starboard Communications awarded Mr Trump the winner with 51 percent, compared to Mr Biden’s 44 percent.
However, the previous polls published by Ipsos in different states showed the Democratic candidate as the winner with 50 to 53 percent.
By comparison, Mr Trump won 44 and 45 percent in these polls meaning Mr Biden had a five to nine percentage point lead.
Mr Biden is ahead with a 52.3 percent average according to the national polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Mr Trump is trailing 9.4 percentage points behind with a 42.8 percent average.
According to recent figures from the US Elections Project, more than 64 million early votes have been cast at the time of writing.
Early voting figures suggest that up to 50m Americans have already cast their ballots, and with the conventional wisdom seeming to suggest that a high turnout is in Biden’s favour, his odds have reflected these numbers, and he is the strong favourite with a week to go according to Betfair.
The current US President is continuing his busy campaign schedule this week as the election draws nearer.
Mr Trump will visit Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska on Tuesday before heading to Arizona and Nevada on Wednesday.
Betfair has odds on a GOP victory in each of these places as follows:
- Wisconsin at 11/8, with the Dems on 2/5
- Michigan at 5/2, with the Dems at 2/5
- Nebraska at 1/33, with the Dems at 28/1
- Arizona at 11/8, with the Dems at 4/6
- Nevada at 9/4, with the Dems at 3/10.
Betfair has odds on a GOP victory in Pennsylvania at 7/4, with Dems at 4/7.
Other swing states include:
- Ohio: GOP at 4/9, Dems at 9/4
- Iowa: GOP at 4/6, Dems at 6/4
- Minnesota: GOP at 11/4, Dems at 3/10
- Florida: GOP at 10/11, Dems at 11/10
- Georgia: GOP at 4/6, Dems at 11/8
- North Carolina: GOP at 6/5, Dems at 4/5
- Texas: GOP at 2/5, Dems at 5/2.
Mr Hughes said: “Perhaps the most important state of all is Pennsylvania- Trump simply cannot lose this state if he expects to keep the White House, and while it wouldn’t be such a hammer blow to Biden, the collateral effect of Trump winning the state on neighbouring Michigan and Ohio would heavily narrow Biden’s path to the White House.
“Odds of 4/7 (62 percent) suggest that Biden may be safe, but it’s worth bearing in mind that his odds were 4/9 (69 percent) in July, and Trump has been heavily targeting the Oil State.
“Biden’s debate comments about shutting down the oil industry, which provides tens of thousands of jobs in PA, will have done him no favours here, and Trump will look to capitalise in these final days.”
The Trump campaign has said the US leader will focus intently on the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan during the final days of the campaign.
In each of these states, in-person voting on Election Day is expected to be especially heavy.
Mr Trump’s challenger Mr Biden is conducting the final days of campaigning at a more measured pace.
Over the weekend, the Democratic hopeful visited just two events in one swing state.
On Tuesday, Mr Biden will visit Georgia, which is a red state Mr Trump is at risk of losing.
Mr Trump won the state by 5.1 percent in 2016, a lower margin compared to Mitt Romney’s 7.82 percent in 2012 and John McCain’s 5.2 percent in 2008.
In 2016, the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won 45.35 percent of the vote, which was slightly lower than Mr Obama’s 45.83 percent in 2012.
The odds have been subject to significant change since the summer.
A Betfair spokesman said: “In August, Dems went 8/11, but drifted right out to 5/4 in mid-September and went 4/5 overnight in early October.”
But overall, the odds still predict a win for Joe Biden, with the Democratic hopeful winning 305 Electoral College votes.
To win an absolute majority of Electoral Votes a candidate must win 270 or more of the 538 electors.
Betfair’s’ Darren Hughes said: “Based on the current state betting odds, we can estimate Joe Biden will be the new United States President next year, with Betfair Exchange projecting the former VP collects 305 Electoral College votes.
“Trump could find victories in Florida and North Carolina, two of his key targets for re-election, but even winning here wouldn’t be enough to close the gap – with Biden sweeping up the traditionally Democratic coastal states.”